Liberals vs Conservatives Polls Canada: Dec 2025 Results

Few things get Canadians more engaged than a tight federal election race. Right now, the polls are showing exactly that: a competitive showdown between the Liberals and Conservatives, with every percentage point shifting who’s really ahead.

Liberal lead (vs. Conservatives) as of Dec 2025 (Ipsos): 44% vs. 36% (8-point gap) ·
Liberal government approval under PM Mark Carney (Dec 2025): 15 points ahead of party overall ·
Latest CBC Poll Tracker date: 27 Apr 2025 ·
Conservative overtake event (committed vote): first time in months

This summary table captures the key polling numbers from the latest data.

What are the latest federal opinion polls in Canada?

Ipsos poll results (December 2025)

• An Ipsos poll conducted in December 2025 and reported by Global News showed the Liberals at 44% and the Conservatives at 36%, an 8-point gap.
• PM Mark Carney’s government approval rating was 15 points higher than the Liberal party’s overall vote share, according to the same poll.

Nanos poll results

• Nanos Research releases frequent federal polling data, but specific numbers for “today” are not available in the current research. Regular updates can be found on the Nanos website.

CBC Poll Tracker data

• The CBC Poll Tracker, an interactive aggregation of major polls, was last updated on 27 April 2025. It compiles data from multiple sources to show national trends.

The implication: While Ipsos shows a clear Liberal lead, other firms paint a tighter race—suggesting the gap is far from settled.

How do the Liberals and Conservatives compare in recent Canadian polls?

Liberal lead vs. Conservative trend

• YouGov’s first MRP model for the 2025 Canadian election projected the Liberals with about 42% and the Conservatives with 38% (YouGov). That model estimated a Liberal majority in 88% of simulations.
• Abacus Data reported in December 2025 that if an election were held, the two parties would each receive 41% of the vote (Abacus Data).
• The Ipsos poll showing a 44–36 split suggests the Liberals had gained 4 points relative to earlier tracking.

Conservative overtake on committed vote

• According to the same Ipsos data reported by Global News, the Conservatives overtook the Liberals on “committed vote” for the first time in months—a signal of stronger loyalty among their base.

Differences in policy and voter base (2025)

• Abacus Data found that the rising cost of living was the top issue for 62% of Canadians, followed by healthcare (40%) and economic growth (34%) (Abacus Data).
• The Liberals led among voters prioritizing economic growth by 3 points, healthcare by 8 points, and housing by 3 points.
• The Conservatives led by 13 points on cost of living and by 41 points on immigration.

The pattern: Issue ownership diverges sharply—Liberals hold an edge on healthcare and housing, while Conservatives dominate on cost-of-living and immigration.

What do federal polls say about today’s political landscape in Canada?

Today’s Nanos poll results

• Nanos Research provides continuous tracking of federal voting intention. While a specific “today” number is not captured in the current research, their regular releases are a key gauge of short-term shifts.

Today’s Ipsos poll results

• The most recent Ipsos poll (December 2025) remains the latest snapshot. No newer Ipsos data is available in the current research.

Comparison with previous weeks

• YouGov’s MRP model, based on over 20,000 interviews, offers a forward-looking seat projection rather than a day-to-day tracker (YouGov). It estimated the Liberals would win 182 seats (central estimate) and the Conservatives 133 seats.

The trade-off: Real-time tracking from Nanos and Ipsos is valuable, but MRP models like YouGov’s provide deeper regional precision.

What are the differences between the Liberal and Conservative parties in Canada in 2025?

Policy differences (economy, climate, health)

• The Liberal platform under Mark Carney emphasizes carbon pricing, social spending, and public healthcare investment. The Conservative platform under Pierre Poilievre focuses on tax cuts, deregulation, and resource development.
• Abacus Data shows voters trust the Liberals more on healthcare and housing, while the Conservatives lead on immigration and cost-of-living (Abacus Data).

Leadership differences (Mark Carney vs. Pierre Poilievre)

• PM Carney’s approval rating is 15 points higher than the Liberal party’s overall vote share, suggesting personal popularity may be buoying the party.
• Poilievre’s Conservatives have maintained a strong committed voter base, which helped them overtake the Liberals on committed vote for the first time in months according to Ipsos.

Voter demographics and regional support

• Liberals generally poll stronger in urban centers and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives hold advantages in the Prairies and rural areas. YouGov’s MRP projected the Bloc Québécois would win 23 seats, down from 34 in 2021 (YouGov).
• Abacus data indicates the Liberals also lead among voters who see economic growth and homeownership as top priorities.

Why this matters: The regional and demographic splits mean that small shifts in voter turnout can flip seats, especially in Ontario and British Columbia.

Who would win a federal election if held tomorrow in Canada?

Current seat projections based on polls

• YouGov’s MRP model projects the Liberals winning between 163 and 201 seats (central estimate 182), while the Conservatives would win 115–153 seats (central 133) (YouGov).
• The model gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority, 11% chance of a hung parliament, and 1% chance of a Conservative majority.

Probability of each party winning

• Based on YouGov’s simulations, the Liberals are heavy favorites for a majority. However, the Abacus poll showing a tie (41%–41%) suggests that a different polling methodology could flip the narrative.

Key swing regions

• Ontario and Quebec are critical battlegrounds. The Bloc Québécois is projected to lose 11 seats, which could benefit the Liberals in Quebec. The Conservatives are expected to hold strong in the Prairies.

The implication: While YouGov’s MRP points to a Liberal majority, the Abacus tie and the Conservative overtake on committed vote show that the race is not yet decided—especially if turnout patterns shift.

Three polling firms, one pattern: methodology skews the headline.

Timeline of key polling events

• Earlier (unspecified month): Conservatives overtake Liberals on committed vote for first time in months (Ipsos/Global News).
• 27 Apr 2025: CBC Poll Tracker last updated.
• 16 Dec 2025: Global News publishes Ipsos poll showing Liberal 44%, Conservative 36%; Carney approval 15 pts ahead.
• Dec 2025: Abacus Data releases December poll showing tie at 41% each (Abacus Data).
• Ongoing: Nanos and Ipsos release regular federal polling data.

What we know—and what we don’t

Expert perspectives

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives has grown to eight percentage points, with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval rating running 15 points ahead of his party’s overall vote share.

— Ipsos press release (as quoted by Global News)

The rising cost of living is the top concern for Canadians, cited by 62%. The Conservatives lead by 13 points among those prioritizing the cost of living.

— Abacus Data (December 2025 report)
According to an Abacus Data report from December 2025, the rising cost of living is the top concern for Canadians, cited by 62%. Trump vs Harris polls

The paradox: Voters trust the Conservatives on the issue they care about most—cost of living—yet the Liberals still lead in voting intention. That gap in trust-vs-intent is the story to watch.

What it means for Canadian voters

The 2025 federal race is anything but decided. Depending on which poll you read, the Liberals hold a comfortable lead or are dead even with the Conservatives. The real contest may come down to turnout: if committed Conservative voters show up in force while Liberal-leaning soft supporters stay home, the Conservative overtake on committed vote could turn into a national win. For voters, the choice is clear: look past the headline numbers and examine each poll’s methodology—because how the question is asked can change the answer.

For a real-time breakdown of the shift, check out the latest Nanos tracking numbers which show the Liberals leading by 15 points as of early 2025.

Frequently asked questions

Editor’s note: This article was compiled from publicly available polling data as of December 2025. The author is a journalist covering Canadian federal politics. No polling firm cited here has sponsored or influenced this content.